Should I ship a Surreal game?
Surreal
Of 1,726 developers who shipped a Surreal game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,909 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×566 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 2,909 games are announced against 985 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.7k (exactly $1,704) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,423) |
| Top 5% | $269k (exactly $268,621) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,726 |
| Released games | 4,949 |
| Announced | 2,909 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Surreal
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 244,063 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 932 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,909 games are announced against 985 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
All pairs with Surreal
No pair with Surreal has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition 2026 · $126M 
Inscryption 2021 · $81M 
CONTROL Ultimate Edition 2020 · $61M 
Mewgenics 2026 · $45M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition | $59.99 | 70,073 78% | 2.1M | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) | Asobo Studio | |
| | Inscryption | older | $19.99 | 135,017 96% | 4.1M | $81M (exactly $80,969,695) | Daniel Mullins Games |
| | CONTROL Ultimate Edition | older | $39.99 | 50,602 86% | 1.5M | $61M (exactly $60,707,219) | Remedy Entertainment |
| | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
 | GRIS | older | $14.99 | 83,857 96% | 2.5M | $38M (exactly $37,710,493) | Nomada Studio |
 | Hotline Miami | older | $9.99 | 109,610 96% | 3.3M | $33M (exactly $32,850,117) | Dennaton Games |
 | Hello Neighbor | older | $29.99 | 26,329 87% | 790k | $24M (exactly $23,688,201) | Dynamic Pixels |
 | Ghostwire: Tokyo | older | $59.99 | 12,954 83% | 389k | $23M (exactly $23,313,314) | Tango Gameworks |
 | Psychonauts 2 | older | $59.99 | 12,333 95% | 370k | $22M (exactly $22,195,700) | Double Fine Productions |
 | REANIMAL | $39.99 | 13,809 78% | 414k | $17M (exactly $16,566,657) | Tarsier Studios | |
 | Mouthwashing | $12.99 | 34,353 95% | 1.0M | $13M (exactly $13,387,364) | Wrong Organ | |
 | Shape of Dreams | $24.99 | 15,769 89% | 473k | $12M (exactly $11,822,019) | Lizard Smoothie | |
 | CloverPit | $9.99 | 24,710 90% | 741k | $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) | Panik Arcade | |
 | Into the Radius 2 | $39.99 | 5,253 79% | 158k | $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) | CM IMMERSIVE | |
 | ATLYSS | · EA | $9.99 | 19,244 96% | 577k | $5.8M (exactly $5,767,427) | Kiseff |
 | South of Midnight | $39.99 | 4,382 94% | 131k | $5.3M (exactly $5,257,085) | Compulsion Games | |
 | Endacopia | $16.50 | 6,474 99% | 194k | $3.2M (exactly $3,204,630) | Andyland |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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