Do I ship it?

GamesSettingsSuperhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero game?

Superhero

Of 131 developers who shipped a Superhero game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 199 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 199 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 199 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.8k → $2.2k → $3.3k → $719 → $3.4k → $3.3k → $898 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,228)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 539
Announced 199
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 225,977 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 199 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Superhero

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Superhero has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Saints Row IV: Re-Elected older $19.99 57,525 87% 1.7M $34M (exactly $34,497,742) Deep Silver Volition
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
LEGO® Batman™: Legacy of the Dark Knight $69.99 8,728 95% 262k $18M (exactly $18,326,182) TT Games
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
MARVEL Cosmic Invasion $29.99 2,298 88% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,511) Tribute Games Inc.
MY HERO ACADEMIA: All’s Justice $59.99 765 63% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770) Byking Inc.
MOMO Crash $12.00 707 89% 21k $255k (exactly $254,520) SKOOTA GAMES
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Infinite Lives $14.99 217 76% 6.5k $98k (exactly $97,585) MDickie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.