Should I ship a Retro game?
Retro
Of 4,246 developers who shipped a Retro game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,671 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×7.5 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×1482 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 5,671 games are announced against 2,584 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $238 (exactly $238) |
|---|---|
| Median | $897 (exactly $897) |
| Top 25% | $6.1k (exactly $6,138) |
| Top 5% | $176k (exactly $176,312) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 4,246 |
| Released games | 14,333 |
| Announced | 5,671 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Retro
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 432,070 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 2,204 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,671 games are announced against 2,584 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
All pairs with Retro
No pair with Retro has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M 
Cuphead 2017 · $119M 
DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M 
Undertale 2015 · $92M 
Celeste 2018 · $79M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ULTRAKILL | · EA older | $29.99 | 213,450 97% | 6.4M | $192M (exactly $192,040,965) | Arsi "Hakita" Patala |
| | Cuphead | older | $19.99 | 198,790 96% | 6.0M | $119M (exactly $119,214,363) | Studio MDHR Entertainment Inc. |
| | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
| | Undertale | older | $9.99 | 307,601 96% | 9.2M | $92M (exactly $92,188,020) | tobyfox |
| | Celeste | older | $19.99 | 132,072 97% | 4.0M | $79M (exactly $79,203,578) | Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.) |
 | Pizza Tower | older | $19.99 | 66,350 98% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $39,790,095) | Tour De Pizza |
 | Vampire Survivors | older | $4.99 | 251,686 98% | 7.6M | $38M (exactly $37,677,394) | poncle |
 | Half-Life | older | $9.99 | 117,320 96% | 3.5M | $35M (exactly $35,160,804) | Valve |
 | Hotline Miami | older | $9.99 | 109,610 96% | 3.3M | $33M (exactly $32,850,117) | Dennaton Games |
 | Sonic Generations Collection | older | $51.79 | 20,304 93% | 609k | $32M (exactly $31,546,325) | Devil's Details |
 | Megabonk | $9.99 | 100,202 94% | 3.0M | $30M (exactly $30,030,539) | vedinad | |
 | MECCHA CHAMELEON | $5.99 | 78,746 87% | 2.4M | $14M (exactly $14,150,656) | lemorion_1224 | |
 | Mouthwashing | $12.99 | 34,353 95% | 1.0M | $13M (exactly $13,387,364) | Wrong Organ | |
 | MOUSE: P.I. For Hire | $29.99 | 14,604 93% | 438k | $13M (exactly $13,139,219) | Fumi Games | |
 | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
 | CloverPit | $9.99 | 24,710 90% | 741k | $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) | Panik Arcade | |
 | Retro Rewind - Video Store Simulator | $19.90 | 10,118 95% | 304k | $6.0M (exactly $6,040,446) | Blood Pact Studios | |
 | The Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 9,700 96% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) | Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | Echo Point Nova | $24.99 | 7,521 96% | 226k | $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) | Greylock Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.