Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsPhilosophical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Philosophical game?

Philosophical

Of 595 developers who shipped a Philosophical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 959 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×9.5 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×1446 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 959 games are announced against 329 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 959 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Philosophical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 595
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.4k → $2.0k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $599 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Philosophical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 595
Bottom 30% $267 (exactly $267)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,134)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $172k (exactly $172,028)
Developers, 2 yr 595
Released games 1,683
Announced 959
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Philosophical
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 16,818 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 348 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 959 games are announced against 329 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Philosophical

0 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Philosophical has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
The Witness older $39.99 17,197 85% 516k $21M (exactly $20,631,241) Thekla, Inc.
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy older $7.99 75,118 82% 2.3M $18M (exactly $18,005,785) Bennett Foddy
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
The Last Campfire older $14.99 17,406 97% 522k $7.8M (exactly $7,827,478) Hello Games
BioShock® 2 older $19.99 11,467 88% 344k $6.9M (exactly $6,876,760) 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia)
Before Your Eyes older $9.99 21,236 97% 637k $6.4M (exactly $6,364,429) GoodbyeWorld Games, Nice Dream
The Beginner's Guide older $9.99 19,902 88% 597k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,629) Everything Unlimited Ltd.
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC
MOLE $12.99 3,534 97% 106k $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200) Off Black Creations
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Phonopolis $24.99 1,537 92% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289) Amanita Design
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
The Lantern of the Laughless Saint · EA $19.99 1,460 89% 44k $876k (exactly $875,562) NerveLabs
One-Eyed Likho $19.99 1,155 93% 35k $693k (exactly $692,654) Morteshka
Keeper $19.99 1,031 91% 31k $618k (exactly $618,291) Double Fine Productions
Schrödinger's Call $17.99 1,124 94% 34k $607k (exactly $606,623) Acrobatic Chirimenjako
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.