Should I ship a Nonlinear game?
Nonlinear
Of 989 developers who shipped a Nonlinear game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,192 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×698 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 2,192 games are announced against 589 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,851) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,269) |
| Top 5% | $331k (exactly $331,429) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 989 |
| Released games | 2,698 |
| Announced | 2,192 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Nonlinear
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 344,707 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 496 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,192 games are announced against 589 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
All pairs with Nonlinear
No pair with Nonlinear has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition 2012 · $49M 
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 2024 · $45M 
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon 2025 · $45M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition | older | $19.99 | 80,882 89% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,504,935) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
| | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
 | The Witness | older | $39.99 | 17,197 85% | 516k | $21M (exactly $20,631,241) | Thekla, Inc. |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | ANIMAL WELL | older | $24.99 | 22,814 95% | 684k | $17M (exactly $17,103,656) | Billy Basso |
 | Blue Prince | $29.99 | 17,498 85% | 525k | $16M (exactly $15,742,951) | Dogubomb | |
 | WEBFISHING | $4.99 | 57,353 97% | 1.7M | $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) | lamedeveloper | |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days | · EA | $24.99 | 9,049 89% | 271k | $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) | PikPok |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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