Should I ship a Ninja game?
Ninja
Of 184 developers who shipped a Ninja game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 225 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $590k, ×950 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 225 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $90 (exactly $90) |
|---|---|
| Median | $537 (exactly $537) |
| Top 25% | $4.3k (exactly $4,287) |
| Top 5% | $597k (exactly $596,501) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 184 |
| Released games | 756 |
| Announced | 225 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Ninja
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 77,035 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 225 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
All pairs with Ninja
No pair with Ninja has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M 
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M 
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M 
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M 
Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT | older | $59.99 | 64,591 93% | 1.9M | $116M (exactly $116,244,423) | Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software) |
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
| | METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE | older | $29.99 | 69,104 96% | 2.1M | $62M (exactly $62,172,869) | PlatinumGames |
| | Nioh: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 29,580 78% | 887k | $44M (exactly $44,361,126) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 | older | $19.99 | 72,409 90% | 2.2M | $43M (exactly $43,423,677) | CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd. |
 | Ghostrunner | older | $29.99 | 46,818 91% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,122,155) | One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games) |
 | Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun | older | $39.99 | 30,845 96% | 925k | $37M (exactly $37,004,746) | Mimimi Games |
 | Katana ZERO | older | $14.99 | 66,341 97% | 2.0M | $30M (exactly $29,833,548) | Askiisoft |
 | NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER | older | $19.99 | 42,572 84% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $25,530,428) | Soleil Ltd. |
 | Nioh 3 | $69.99 | 11,777 78% | 353k | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 4 | $69.99 | 8,459 88% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,761,362) | PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.) | |
 | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 | $59.99 | 2,879 83% | 86k | $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) | CyberConnect2 | |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black | $49.99 | 3,289 78% | 99k | $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance | $29.99 | 3,564 83% | 107k | $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) | SEGA, Lizardcube | |
 | NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound | $24.99 | 2,500 92% | 75k | $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) | The Game Kitchen | |
 | Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection | $49.99 | 1,214 63% | 36k | $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) | Digital Eclipse | |
 | Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage | $19.99 | 1,897 71% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) | RGG Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.