Should I ship a Naval game?
Naval
Of 152 developers who shipped a Naval game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 269 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×1404 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 269 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $36,264) |
| Top 5% | $881k (exactly $881,428) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 152 |
| Released games | 527 |
| Announced | 269 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Naval
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 65,148 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 269 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
All pairs with Naval
No pair with Naval has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M 
Barotrauma 2023 · $65M 
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M 
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Assassin's Creed Valhalla | older | $59.99 | 41,083 70% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $73,937,075) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Barotrauma | older | $34.99 | 61,905 94% | 1.9M | $65M (exactly $64,981,678) | FakeFish, Undertow Games |
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
 | Transport Fever 2 | older | $39.99 | 26,714 89% | 801k | $32M (exactly $32,048,786) | Urban Games |
 | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
 | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
 | Holdfast: Nations At War | older | $19.99 | 26,624 90% | 799k | $16M (exactly $15,966,413) | Anvil Game Studios |
 | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | Seafarer: The Ship Sim | · EA | $34.99 | 1,921 64% | 58k | $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) | astragon Development |
 | Salt 2: Shores of Gold | $19.99 | 2,182 85% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Lavaboots Studios | |
 | Spilled! | $5.99 | 4,905 93% | 147k | $881k (exactly $881,428) | Lente | |
 | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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