Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsNarrative

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Narrative game?

Narrative

Of 391 developers who shipped a Narrative game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 690 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1807 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 690 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 690 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Narrative
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 391
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $9.0k → $4.8k → $27k → $8.5k → $3.8k → $3.9k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Narrative: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 391
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $46,177)
Top 5% $858k (exactly $858,314)
Developers, 2 yr 391
Released games 888
Announced 690
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Narrative
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 138,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 690 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Narrative

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Narrative has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INSIDE older $24.99 69,791 97% 2.1M $52M (exactly $52,322,313) Playdead
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Journey older $14.99 34,805 94% 1.0M $16M (exactly $15,651,808) thatgamecompany
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Mixtape $19.99 7,365 87% 221k $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) Beethoven and Dinosaur
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.