Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsLore-Rich

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lore-Rich game?

Lore-Rich

Of 1,288 developers who shipped a Lore-Rich game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,298 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $840k, ×1769 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 3,298 games are announced against 786 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 3,298 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Lore-Rich
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,288
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $6.3k → $4.9k → $5.4k → $3.3k → $2.4k → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Lore-Rich: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,288
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,697)
Top 5% $840k (exactly $840,320)
Developers, 2 yr 1,288
Released games 3,152
Announced 3,298
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Lore-Rich
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 631,123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $840k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 684 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,298 games are announced against 786 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Lore-Rich

0 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Lore-Rich has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED older $39.99 100,222 92% 3.0M $120M (exactly $120,236,333) QLOC, FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin older $39.99 83,722 84% 2.5M $100M (exactly $100,441,283) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.