Should I ship a Heist game?
Heist
Of 107 developers who shipped a Heist game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 273 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1691 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 273 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,698) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $30,270) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 107 |
| Released games | 404 |
| Announced | 273 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 40,477 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 273 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
All pairs with Heist
No pair with Heist has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M 
Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
| | Call of Duty®: WWII | older | $59.99 | 33,576 71% | 1.0M | $60M (exactly $60,426,727) | Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software |
 | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN | older | $19.99 | 73,137 91% | 2.2M | $44M (exactly $43,860,259) | KONAMI |
 | Dishonored 2 | older | $29.99 | 42,988 90% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $38,676,304) | Arkane Studios |
 | Crime Scene Cleaner | older | $29.99 | 32,469 98% | 974k | $29M (exactly $29,212,359) | President Studio |
 | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | Crime Simulator | $14.99 | 6,244 82% | 187k | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) | CookieDev | |
 | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
 | The Break-In | $19.99 | 2,040 87% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) | jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Dark Hours | $9.99 | 3,481 81% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) | Piece of Cake studios | |
 | Clank! | $22.99 | 542 92% | 16k | $374k (exactly $373,817) | Dire Wolf | |
 | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
 | Jackal | $14.99 | 596 88% | 18k | $268k (exactly $268,021) | Transhuman Design |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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