Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsEpisodic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Episodic game?

Episodic

Of 62 developers who shipped an Episodic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×44 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×3604 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 74 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 43.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Episodic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $13k → $6.1k → $166k → $48k → $6.9k → $8.9k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Episodic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Median $21k (exactly $20,679)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,745)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 293
Announced 74
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Episodic
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 319,819 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Episodic

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Episodic has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
The Walking Dead older $14.99 53,650 97% 1.6M $24M (exactly $24,126,405) Telltale Games
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
Life is Strange: Before the Storm older $16.99 33,504 93% 1.0M $17M (exactly $17,076,989) Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Resident Evil Revelations 2 older $19.99 25,446 78% 763k $15M (exactly $15,259,966) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Wolf Among Us older $14.99 32,494 97% 975k $15M (exactly $14,612,552) Telltale
The Walking Dead: Season Two older $14.99 26,848 96% 805k $12M (exactly $12,073,546) Telltale Games
The Walking Dead: The Final Season older $19.99 17,447 94% 523k $10M (exactly $10,462,966) Telltale Games
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Fears to Fathom® - Scratch Creek $7.99 7,141 75% 214k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698) Rayll
FreshWomen - Season 2 $13.99 2,663 82% 80k $1.1M (exactly $1,117,661) Pantsu Interactive
Race of Life - Act 1 $13.99 1,183 94% 35k $497k (exactly $496,505) Underground Studio
LISC - Season 1 $15.99 869 83% 26k $417k (exactly $416,859) MOODY
Forbidden Fantasy $6.99 1,459 88% 44k $306k (exactly $305,952) OppaiMan Studios
Breeze of Passion $14.99 605 87% 18k $272k (exactly $272,068) L7team
Bright Lord $14.99 508 80% 15k $228k (exactly $228,448) KissKiss Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.