Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsEmotional

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Emotional game?

Emotional

Of 2,088 developers who shipped an Emotional game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,755 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×987 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 3,755 games are announced against 1,246 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 3,755 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Emotional
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,088
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $3.9k → $3.6k → $3.1k → $3.9k → $2.8k → $1.6k (still earning) → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Emotional: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,088
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,048)
Top 5% $469k (exactly $468,744)
Developers, 2 yr 2,088
Released games 6,131
Announced 3,755
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Emotional
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 329,505 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 1,198 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,755 games are announced against 1,246 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Emotional

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Emotional has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
A Way Out older $29.99 78,174 87% 2.3M $70M (exactly $70,333,148) Hazelight Studios
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.