Should I ship a Difficult game?
Difficult
Of 1,742 developers who shipped a Difficult game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,281 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1504 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 2,281 games are announced against 965 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $1,978) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 5% | $715k (exactly $714,599) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,742 |
| Released games | 8,182 |
| Announced | 2,281 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Difficult
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,380,815 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 890 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,281 games are announced against 965 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
All pairs with Difficult
No pair with Difficult has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M 
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | HELLDIVERS™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 838,901 76% | 25M | $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) | Arrowhead Game Studios |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
 | Dead by Daylight | older | $19.99 | 685,423 78% | 21M | $411M (exactly $411,048,173) | Behaviour Interactive Inc. |
 | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Hollow Knight: Silksong | $19.99 | 386,977 89% | 12M | $232M (exactly $232,070,107) | Team Cherry | |
 | Hollow Knight | older | $14.99 | 502,960 96% | 15M | $226M (exactly $226,181,112) | Team Cherry |
 | Slay the Spire 2 | · EA | $24.99 | 183,764 61% | 5.5M | $138M (exactly $137,767,871) | Mega Crit |
 | Hades II | $29.99 | 114,419 95% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,942,774) | Supergiant Games | |
 | WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers | $49.99 | 44,865 58% | 1.3M | $67M (exactly $67,284,040) | Leenzee | |
 | My Summer Car | $14.99 | 108,503 94% | 3.3M | $49M (exactly $48,793,799) | Amistech Games | |
 | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
 | The First Berserker: Khazan | $59.99 | 21,049 85% | 631k | $38M (exactly $37,881,885) | Neople | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry | |
 | Nioh 3 | $69.99 | 11,777 78% | 353k | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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