Should I ship a Dark game?
Dark
Of 3,750 developers who shipped a Dark game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,711 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×656 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 6,711 games are announced against 2,261 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
| Top 25% | $8.7k (exactly $8,683) |
| Top 5% | $312k (exactly $311,688) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 3,750 |
| Released games | 10,431 |
| Announced | 6,711 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dark
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 674,777 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 2,052 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,711 games are announced against 2,261 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
All pairs with Dark
No pair with Dark has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M 
Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M 
Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Phasmophobia | · EA older | $19.99 | 684,009 94% | 21M | $410M (exactly $410,200,197) | Kinetic Games |
| | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
 | Resident Evil Requiem | $69.99 | 106,931 95% | 3.2M | $225M (exactly $224,523,021) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Resident Evil 4 | older | $39.99 | 186,701 97% | 5.6M | $224M (exactly $223,985,190) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Resident Evil 2 | older | $39.99 | 156,065 97% | 4.7M | $187M (exactly $187,231,180) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth | older | $14.99 | 415,060 96% | 12M | $187M (exactly $186,652,482) | Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen |
 | ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN | $39.99 | 129,476 83% | 3.9M | $155M (exactly $155,332,357) | FromSoftware, Inc. | |
 | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
 | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
 | WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers | $49.99 | 44,865 58% | 1.3M | $67M (exactly $67,284,040) | Leenzee | |
 | The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered | $49.99 | 34,252 90% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,367,724) | Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios) | |
 | The First Berserker: Khazan | $59.99 | 21,049 85% | 631k | $38M (exactly $37,881,885) | Neople | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry | |
 | Killing Floor 3 | $39.99 | 16,493 46% | 495k | $20M (exactly $19,786,652) | Tripwire Interactive | |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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