Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsCute

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cute game?

Cute

Of 6,893 developers who shipped a Cute game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10,262 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×520 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 10,262 games are announced against 4,156 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 10,262 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cute
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6,893
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $2.2k → $2.2k → $1.9k → $1.7k → $1.9k → $1.2k (still earning) → $564 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cute: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6,893
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,301)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $246,885)
Developers, 2 yr 6,893
Released games 23,977
Announced 10,262
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cute
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 995,999 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 4,517 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10,262 games are announced against 4,156 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Cute

0 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Cute has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Bloons TD 6 older $13.99 349,859 97% 10M $147M (exactly $146,835,822) Ninja Kiwi
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Planet Zoo older $44.99 81,191 90% 2.4M $110M (exactly $109,583,493) Frontier Developments
Undertale older $9.99 307,601 96% 9.2M $92M (exactly $92,188,020) tobyfox
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.