Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsCozy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cozy game?

Cozy

Of 1,318 developers who shipped a Cozy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,587 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×23 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×4409 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 2,587 games are announced against 960 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 2,587 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cozy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,318
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $17k → $9.0k → $6.1k → $7.6k → $4.5k → $3.4k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cozy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,318
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,083)
Top 5% $525k (exactly $524,625)
Developers, 2 yr 1,318
Released games 2,347
Announced 2,587
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cozy
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 149,782 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 542 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,587 games are announced against 960 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Cozy

0 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Cozy has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PowerWash Simulator older $24.99 50,924 96% 1.5M $38M (exactly $38,177,723) FuturLab
Paralives · EA $39.99 20,123 89% 604k $24M (exactly $24,141,563) Alex Massé and team
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light
WEBFISHING $4.99 57,353 97% 1.7M $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) lamedeveloper
Little Kitty, Big City older $24.99 10,423 96% 313k $7.8M (exactly $7,814,123) Double Dagger Studio
A Little to the Left older $14.99 16,885 91% 507k $7.6M (exactly $7,593,184) Max Inferno
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Town to City $29.99 6,193 97% 186k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,842) Galaxy Grove
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Cash Cleaner Simulator $19.99 7,334 92% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) Mind Control Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.