Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsCartoony

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cartoon game?

Cartoony

Of 3,399 developers who shipped a Cartoon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,244 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×330 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 5,244 games are announced against 1,944 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 5,244 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cartoony
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,399
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.6k → $898 → $1.0k → $809 → $900 → $748 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cartoony: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,399
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $156,548)
Developers, 2 yr 3,399
Released games 10,918
Announced 5,244
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cartoony
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 188,150 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 2,116 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,244 games are announced against 1,944 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Cartoony

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Cartoony has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloons TD 6 older $13.99 349,859 97% 10M $147M (exactly $146,835,822) Ninja Kiwi
Cuphead older $19.99 198,790 96% 6.0M $119M (exactly $119,214,363) Studio MDHR Entertainment Inc.
Among Us older $4.99 659,003 92% 20M $99M (exactly $98,652,749) Innersloth
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
Pizza Tower older $19.99 66,350 98% 2.0M $40M (exactly $39,790,095) Tour De Pizza
The First Berserker: Khazan $59.99 21,049 85% 631k $38M (exactly $37,881,885) Neople
SONIC X SHADOW GENERATIONS $49.99 12,178 96% 365k $18M (exactly $18,263,347) Sonic Team
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.