Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsBMX

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a BMX game?

BMX

Only 16 developers shipped a BMX game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, STORROR Parkour Pro, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1916 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
BMX
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $150 → $1.0k → $2.1k → $5.6k → $599 → $103k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for BMX: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,100)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 68
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

BMX
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
BMX
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 3,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with BMX

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with BMX has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
PIPE by BMX Streets older $9.99 5,351 92% 161k $1.6M (exactly $1,603,695) Mash Games
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
BMX The Game · EA older $24.99 448 60% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Barspin Studios
The Ramp older $5.99 1,104 95% 33k $198k (exactly $198,389) Paul Schnepf
Streetdog BMX $24.99 196 94% 5.9k $147k (exactly $146,941) Yeah Us! Games
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
Skatehouse $9.99 123 94% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Tyler Ray Games
BMX Bastards · EA $16.99 71 85% 2.1k $36k (exactly $36,189) CSF Games Studio
Bananitro $3.99 47 100% 1.4k $5.6k (exactly $5,626) Inventario
Jumbo Scooter $5.00 34 85% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,100) BepeDev
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
Legends BMX $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Saga Legends Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.