Do I ship it?

GamesSettingsBased On A Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Novel-Based game?

Based On A Novel

Only 11 developers shipped a Novel-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is up 3690% on the market; 8 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 3690% on the market, 8 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Based On A Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $284k → $119 → $7.9k → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Based On A Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,917)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,134)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 95
Announced 8
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3690% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Based On A Novel
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 434 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Based On A Novel

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Based On A Novel has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metro 2033 Redux older $19.99 94,968 91% 2.8M $57M (exactly $56,952,310) 4A Games
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition older $19.99 80,882 89% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,504,935) CD PROJEKT RED
Metro: Last Light Redux older $19.99 71,435 91% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,839,570) 4A Games
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ older $19.99 63,815 92% 1.9M $38M (exactly $38,269,856) Monolith Productions
The Witcher: Enhanced Edition Director's Cut older $9.99 81,712 89% 2.5M $24M (exactly $24,489,086) CD PROJEKT RED
Alice: Madness Returns older $9.99 27,795 90% 834k $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) Spicy Horse Games
Record of Lodoss War-Deedlit in Wonder Labyrinth- older $19.99 7,132 92% 214k $4.3M (exactly $4,277,060) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth older $19.99 5,926 92% 178k $3.6M (exactly $3,553,822) Daedalic Entertainment
The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing older $14.99 7,720 83% 232k $3.5M (exactly $3,471,684) NeocoreGames
Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword older $9.99 11,213 87% 336k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,536) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile $39.99 221 78% 6.6k $265k (exactly $265,134) Microids Studio Lyon
Flan's BN $5.99 78 97% 2.3k $14k (exactly $14,017) Geism
A Wild Last Boss Appeared! ~Black-Winged Survivor~ $23.99 11 100% 330 $7.9k (exactly $7,917) 株式会社ロケットスタジオ
Edgar Allan Poe's Interactive Horror: 1995 Edition $9.99 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Inscape, GMedia
Veins of DARKNESS $2.99 40 87% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) Langonier
Radiance of Souls $2.99 28 89% 840 $2.5k (exactly $2,512) Langonier
Nemunai $6.99 6 83% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) DavMY Studios
The Cats of Monte Cristo $0.99 24 83% 720 $713 (exactly $713) Snkl Studio
A Christmas Carol: But With Anime Girls $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Hallinan Labs
My Gambian Boyfriend $0.99 4 75% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Alright Peaches Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.