Do I ship it?

Games › Racing › Racing + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Racing RPG?

Racing + RPG

Of 80 developers who shipped a Racing RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 45 developers shipped in the last year and 92 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $179 → $90 → $0 → $2.7k → $179 → $239 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 5% $236k (exactly $235,643)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 393
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Open World
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 104,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M Mad Max 2015 · $35M Tokyo Xtreme Racer 2025 · $23M Notes of Soul 2019 · EA · $13M Yakuza 5 Remastered 2021 · $3.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Notes of Soul · EA older $29.99 14,293 73% 429k $13M (exactly $12,859,412) （Hong Kong）GKD Game Studio
Yakuza 5 Remastered older $19.99 6,199 88% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,717,540) RGG Studio
RAGE older $9.99 12,230 76% 367k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,331) id Software
TT Isle of Man: Ride on the Edge 2 older $29.99 1,111 82% 33k $1.0M (exactly $999,567) KT Racing
Blockland older $9.99 3,326 70% 100k $997k (exactly $996,802) Eric Hartman, Ben Garney, Anthony Roton… (Eric Hartman, Ben Garney, Anthony Rotondo)
Rustler (Grand Theft Horse) older $24.99 1,227 78% 37k $920k (exactly $919,882) Jutsu Games
Car Mechanic Simulator 2014 older $6.99 4,042 82% 121k $848k (exactly $847,607) Red Dot Games
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
3dSen PC $14.99 524 91% 16k $236k (exactly $235,643) Geod Studio
Horse Racing Manager · EA $24.99 208 88% 6.2k $156k (exactly $155,938) Sheep Meadow Road Games
Truck-kun is Supporting Me from Another World?! $19.99 238 83% 7.1k $143k (exactly $142,729) Strange Scaffold
The Last Survivors Harem $9.99 290 82% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) Survival Strategy ！
Dino Ramen Express · EA $14.99 160 72% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,952) ANTIGames
The Economy Bros $19.99 56 82% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) Devin Carlson
Too Tired To Die $11.99 69 79% 2.1k $25k (exactly $24,819) Be Fun House

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.