Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Racing Survival game?

Racing + Survival

Of 33 developers who shipped a Racing Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21372 the market median. Revenue is up 890% on the market; 80 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 890% on the market, 80 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $599 → $0 → $1.3k → $987 → $78k → $958 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,117)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,421,879)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 198
Announced 80
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 890% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Survival; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Simulation, Automobile Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 147,915 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
The Long Drive · EA older $15.99 50,184 88% 1.5M $24M (exactly $24,073,265) Genesz
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
RAGE older $9.99 12,230 76% 367k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,331) id Software
Alaskan Road Truckers older $21.99 2,711 62% 81k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,447) Road Studio S.A.
UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator older $19.99 1,556 78% 47k $933k (exactly $933,133) IndieMax
Carmageddon: Rogue Shift $39.99 752 62% 23k $902k (exactly $902,174) 34BigThings srl
Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter $19.99 494 91% 15k $296k (exactly $296,252) TruePlayers
The Slaverian Trucker $11.99 789 85% 24k $284k (exactly $283,803) SawyerK Games
Long Drive North: Co-Op RV Simulator · EA $14.99 254 41% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Mindflair Games LTD
The Last Survivors Harem $9.99 290 82% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) Survival Strategy !
Driving Life $14.99 174 55% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Chrysopy Games
Drive Me Broke $15.99 142 79% 4.3k $68k (exactly $68,117) Onur AD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.