Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Split Screen

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Split Screen Racing game?

Racing + Split Screen

Of 82 developers who shipped a Split Screen Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×1414 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 90 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 90 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Split Screen
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $4.9k → $4.3k → $9.7k → $3.6k → $3.6k → $2.4k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Split Screen: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Top 5% $888k (exactly $887,822)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 316
Announced 90
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Split Screen
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Split Screen; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, PvP, Arcade
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 53,365 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds $69.99 11,479 93% 344k $24M (exactly $24,102,456) Sonic Team
DiRT Rally 2.0 older $19.99 39,091 89% 1.2M $23M (exactly $23,442,873) Codemasters
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted older $19.99 25,197 77% 756k $15M (exactly $15,110,641) Criterion Games
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed Collection older $19.99 11,912 93% 357k $7.1M (exactly $7,143,626) Sumo Digital
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
The Karters 2: Turbo Charged · EA $29.99 1,043 91% 31k $938k (exactly $938,387) Pixel Edge Games
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Old School Rally $12.99 2,142 89% 64k $835k (exactly $834,737) Frozen Lake Games
Super Woden: Rally Edge $12.99 1,552 96% 47k $605k (exactly $604,814) ViJuDa
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.