Do I ship it?

Games › Racing › Racing + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Racing game?

Racing + Science

Only 6 developers shipped a Science Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, RogueViz Collection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $900 against a market of $630. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 8 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Racing + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 5% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 31
Announced 8
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 59,003 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $2.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Motorsport 2023 · $26M Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game 2015 · EA · $15M Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing 2018 · $8.2M Expeditions: A MudRunner Game 2024 · $3.6M Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator 2021 · $3.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game · EA older $29.99 16,815 93% 504k $15M (exactly $15,128,456) Camshaft Software Ltd
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator older $14.99 7,770 95% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,494,169) Luminite
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
DEPLOYMENT older $14.99 951 85% 29k $428k (exactly $427,665) Whale Rock Games
Homebrew - Patent Unknown · EA older $14.99 828 71% 25k $372k (exactly $372,352) Copybugpaste
CAR TUNE: Project · EA older $18.99 585 84% 18k $333k (exactly $333,274) Vertices Software
Star Rangers™ XE · EA older $11.99 118 28% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,445) Project Whitecard Studios Inc., NASA (S… (Project Whitecard Studios Inc., NASA (Some Models))
RogueViz Collection $6.99 11 90% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Zeno Rogue
Guess the Flag! $3.99 16 93% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Source Byte
Off World Racing · EA $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Off World Racing Company
Gooey $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Turbo Pixel
Gallium · EA $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Overseeing Industries
Maze Simulator $3.35 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) hjdhdh

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.