Do I ship it?

Games › Racing › Racing + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Racing game?

Racing + Sailing

Only 10 developers shipped a Sailing Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sailaway III, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×13 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×13 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $74k → $210 → $120
Outcomes for Racing + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $54,491)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $75,793)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 35
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 90% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Sailing
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 81% positive over 843 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $75k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×13 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

eSail Sailing Simulator 2019 · $864k Shipped 2019 · $175k Virtual Sailor NG 2022 · $158k Yacht Mechanic Simulator 2022 · $84k Sailaway III 2024 · $76k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
eSail Sailing Simulator older $37.99 758 92% 23k $864k (exactly $863,893) eSail Ltd.
Shipped older $9.99 584 96% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) Majorariatto
Virtual Sailor NG older $39.99 132 90% 4.0k $158k (exactly $158,360) Ilan Papini
Yacht Mechanic Simulator older $14.99 186 22% 5.6k $84k (exactly $83,644) Punch Punk Games
Sailaway III $15.99 158 68% 4.7k $76k (exactly $75,793) Orbcreation BV
VR Sailing $7.99 307 96% 9.2k $74k (exactly $73,588) HFRK.
Hydrofoil Generation older $19.99 103 84% 3.1k $62k (exactly $61,769) Jaxx Vane Studio
Boat Together $4.99 364 76% 11k $54k (exactly $54,491) Beaked Games
Summer Trip Cruise older $9.99 103 90% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Gius Caminiti
MarineVerse Sailing Club older $29.99 24 70% 720 $22k (exactly $21,593) MarineVerse
Speedboat Simulator · EA $8.99 10 70% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Hard Shark Games
Sea Bikers Jetski $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) 8º Arte Games
Lullapops Sail Race $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Gamore Ltd.
In A Wheel $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) ElyDev
Kitesurf Runner $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Dumpster Buddha Games
Stranded at Sea $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Owen Delwiche, Preston Lindley, James G… (Owen Delwiche, Preston Lindley, James Goodwin)
Vehicle Laboratory $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Coarse Bread Access

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.