Do I ship it?

Games › Racing › Racing + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Racing game?

Racing + Roguelike

Of 45 developers who shipped a Roguelike Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 24 developers shipped in the last year and 72 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 72 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $449 → $120 → $359 → $657 → $239 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,112)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,252)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 108
Announced 72
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Action, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,437 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Carmageddon: Rogue Shift 2026 · $902k Heading Out 2024 · $383k Descenders Next 2025 · EA · $350k Death Roads: Tournament 2023 · $328k Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter 2025 · $296k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Carmageddon: Rogue Shift $39.99 752 62% 23k $902k (exactly $902,174) 34BigThings srl
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid
Death Roads: Tournament older $14.99 729 80% 22k $328k (exactly $327,831) The Knights of Unity
Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter $19.99 494 91% 15k $296k (exactly $296,252) TruePlayers
Bloody Rally Show older $19.99 248 89% 7.4k $149k (exactly $148,726) Kodo Linija
The Loopler $9.99 349 90% 10k $105k (exactly $104,595) Mheep
The Last Survivors Harem $9.99 290 82% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) Survival Strategy ！
Jet Kave Adventure older $14.99 122 85% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) 7Levels
Switchcars older $8.99 164 90% 4.9k $44k (exactly $44,231) Altfuture
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
REDLINE CROOKS $11.99 73 100% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) Alexander Golke
SCHROTT: Roguelike Racer · EA $12.99 49 91% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Ivy Juice
Designated Driver Simulator · EA $17.99 16 62% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) PostSIM
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.