Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics Racing game?

Racing + Real Time Tactics

Only 15 developers shipped a Real Time Tactics Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, GT Manager, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60 in the last 2 years and $210 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $0 → $210 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $176,929)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 47
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Real Time Tactics
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 72% positive over 296 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GT Manager $24.99 236 71% 7.1k $177k (exactly $176,929) THE TINY DIGITAL FACTORY, IMV STUDIO
Tour de France 2020 older $19.99 122 80% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2021 older $39.99 59 81% 1.8k $71k (exactly $70,782) Cyanide Studio
MarineVerse Sailing Club older $29.99 24 70% 720 $22k (exactly $21,593) MarineVerse
Car Hustle Simulator · EA $14.99 26 73% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Silent Code Games
BeachRun older $24.99 11 100% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Gamesforgames
KEO · EA older $9.99 27 74% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Redcatpig Studio
DRAFTYCAR older $6.99 23 82% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) Bryan Blackford
Hoples older $9.99 12 66% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Amfich
Cycling Champion · EA $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) RaulM
RC: Car Maniacs $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) GH Games
Premier Servi $2.99 10 100% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Florent Baris, Gaspard Thirion, Mickaël… (Florent Baris, Gaspard Thirion, Mickaël Scherlen)
Lullapops Sail Race $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Gamore Ltd.
Ball Stars $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Daniel Lochner
Tung Tung Together: Online Deathrun Party · EA $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) DarkRook Interactive
Knightfall Showdown $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Atzi_ Games, Herpai József Mátyás
Powder Runners: Maze Quest · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Farytek

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.