Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Racing game?

Racing + Perma Death

Only 10 developers shipped a Perma Death Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, My Summer Car, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.2k against a market of $630. 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 8.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 9505% on the market, 29 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $1.8k → $5.2k → $3.9k
Outcomes for Racing + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $5.2k (exactly $5,240)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,646)
Top 5% $49M (exactly $48,793,799)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 39
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9505% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Simulation, Automobile Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 127,642 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $5.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.6k, 1 in 20 over $48M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Death Roads: Tournament older $14.99 729 80% 22k $328k (exactly $327,831) The Knights of Unity
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Gearshifters older $24.99 85 80% 2.6k $64k (exactly $63,724) Red Phantom Games
An Other Golf Game · EA $6.99 46 86% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) waxycaps
Bike Rush older $4.99 61 44% 1.8k $9.1k (exactly $9,132) Axyos Games
Jones On Fire older $2.99 89 80% 2.7k $8.0k (exactly $7,983) Glass Bottom Games
Adopted Passion Realize Your Dream · EA older $19.99 12 66% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) fabolous_lux
Synthwave Dream '85 $3.99 48 100% 1.4k $5.7k (exactly $5,746) LoneDev
Lazy Climbers $4.99 35 68% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Cool Car Studio
Faster Bunnies $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Triple Cerberus Studios
HelmetFire $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Snick Developments
Phantom Break $0.99 3 66% 90 $89 (exactly $89) AA Mini Games Studio
太和的疯狂农场 Taihe's Crazy Farm $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) 太和独游匠

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.