Do I ship it?

GamesMiningMining + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Mining game?

Mining + Science

Only 18 developers shipped a Science Mining game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Space Engineers 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×39 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.5M, ×9650 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 11 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 39.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 11 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mining + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $53k → $52k (still earning) → $8.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mining + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Median $19k (exactly $18,742)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $89,955)
Top 5% $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 33
Announced 11
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mining; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Strategy, Management
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 13,775 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.3k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $89k, 1 in 20 over $4.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.3k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mining with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingStrong odds18 devs · median $22k · 15 announced
  2. + TradingFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  3. + DwarvesFair17 devs · median $9.6k · 26 announced
  4. + Tower DefenseFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  5. + EconomyFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  6. + AutomationFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  7. + Turn-Based StrategyFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  9. + NatureFair42 devs · median $2.4k · 49 announced
  10. + IdlerFair136 devs · median $2.3k · 185 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair63 devs · median $2.1k · 53 announced

All 91 pairs on the Mining page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps
Mercury Fallen older $24.99 255 80% 7.7k $191k (exactly $191,174) Nitrous Butterfly
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Space Architect $9.99 294 73% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Albert Wiatr
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
Snacktorio $7.99 215 90% 6.5k $52k (exactly $51,536) ellraiser
RigidGems Museum $24.99 25 96% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) FerioWorks
Last Breath · EA $7.99 60 81% 1.8k $14k (exactly $14,382) Mx

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.