Do I ship it?

GamesMiningMining + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Perma Death game?

Mining + Perma Death

Only 11 developers shipped a Mining Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Coal LLC, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1271 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 26 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mining + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $269 → $4.2k → $3.0k
Outcomes for Mining + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,821)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 28
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mining, Perma Death
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 91% positive over 1,513 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $7.8k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mining with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingStrong odds18 devs · median $22k · 15 announced
  2. + TradingFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  3. + DwarvesFair17 devs · median $9.6k · 26 announced
  4. + Tower DefenseFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  5. + EconomyFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  6. + AutomationFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  7. + Turn-Based StrategyFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  9. + NatureFair42 devs · median $2.4k · 49 announced
  10. + IdlerFair136 devs · median $2.3k · 185 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair63 devs · median $2.1k · 53 announced

All 91 pairs on the Mining page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Repetendium · EA older $5.99 220 92% 6.6k $40k (exactly $39,534) Bearlex Games
No Parachute older $4.99 116 89% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) Wherry
Tunnel of Doom older $13.99 32 62% 960 $13k (exactly $13,430) Antti Vaihia
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games
Star Mining Co. $8.99 29 82% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Barney Whiteman
Vector Prospector older $7.99 21 80% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) SpinAttack Studio
Comet Rogue $4.99 28 96% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Antique Gear Games
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio
GCS: Salvage Rat $9.99 9 22% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Stellar Forge Works
Oreflux $4.99 10 80% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Mateusz P.
This sect accepts female disciples only $8.99 2 50% 60 $539 (exactly $539) sln
Final Forge · EA $2.99 3 33% 90 $269 (exactly $269) OPS Game Studio
Aditore $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gadget Node Games LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.