Do I ship it?

GamesMiningMining + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Mining game?

Mining + Mystery

Of 30 developers who shipped a Mystery Mining game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1470 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 50 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mining + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $9.0k → $127k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mining + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $960 (exactly $960)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 25% $106k (exactly $106,147)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $698,342)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 48
Announced 50
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mining; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Voxel
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 25,393 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mining with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingStrong odds18 devs · median $22k · 15 announced
  2. + TradingFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  3. + DwarvesFair17 devs · median $9.6k · 26 announced
  4. + Tower DefenseFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  5. + EconomyFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  6. + AutomationFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  7. + Turn-Based StrategyFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  9. + NatureFair42 devs · median $2.4k · 49 announced
  10. + IdlerFair136 devs · median $2.3k · 185 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair63 devs · median $2.1k · 53 announced

All 91 pairs on the Mining page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hidden Deep · EA older $24.99 4,293 76% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,218,462) Cogwheel Software
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
UnderMine 2 · EA $19.99 828 75% 25k $497k (exactly $496,552) Thorium
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Dig Island · EA $14.99 282 86% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) FiftyEight Studios
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
Everdeep Aurora $19.99 177 89% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Nautilus Games
The Black Ice · EA $14.99 147 77% 4.4k $66k (exactly $66,106) RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games
Drill and Delve $8.99 108 87% 3.2k $29k (exactly $29,128) noOne

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.