Do I ship it?

GamesMiningMining + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Mining game?

Mining + Medieval

Of 30 developers who shipped a Medieval Mining game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×797 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 37 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mining + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.1k → $210 → $19k → $12k → $1.1k → $2.3k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mining + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,592)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $378,591)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 60
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mining; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 17,168 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mining with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingStrong odds18 devs · median $22k · 15 announced
  2. + TradingFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  3. + DwarvesFair17 devs · median $9.6k · 26 announced
  4. + Tower DefenseFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  5. + EconomyFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  6. + AutomationFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  7. + Turn-Based StrategyFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  9. + NatureFair42 devs · median $2.4k · 49 announced
  10. + IdlerFair136 devs · median $2.3k · 185 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair63 devs · median $2.1k · 53 announced

All 91 pairs on the Mining page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Click Mage $4.99 2,529 91% 76k $379k (exactly $378,591) Tiny Crow Games
My Little Blacksmith Shop $9.99 1,111 69% 33k $333k (exactly $332,967) Dasius, Noble Games Studio
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
9th Dawn III older $15.99 501 87% 15k $240k (exactly $240,330) Valorware
Beneath the Mountain older $24.99 196 63% 5.9k $147k (exactly $146,941) Omnis Rector Studios
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Between Adventures IDLE · EA $7.99 319 71% 9.6k $76k (exactly $76,464) Loop Forge
RFVR · EA older $29.99 49 81% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) OMFGames
Alnico Smithery · EA $14.99 98 82% 2.9k $44k (exactly $44,071) Pinapl
The Traveller Tale $19.99 26 69% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Mystic Dream Studio's
Flow Of War $12.99 40 85% 1.2k $16k (exactly $15,588) Rongcon Games
QUESTSCAPE: Survival $11.99 34 64% 1.0k $12k (exactly $12,230) ScapeCompany

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.