Do I ship it?

Games › Grid-Based Movement › Grid-Based Movement + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Grid-Based Movement game?

Grid-Based Movement + War

Of 27 developers who shipped a War Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×9271 the market median. Revenue is up 3850% on the market; 54 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 3850% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $2.2k → $1.2k → $327 → $13k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $327 (exactly $327)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 73
Announced 54
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3850% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Grid-Based Movement; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$10.89 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $10.89.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 18,096 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M MENACE 2026 · EA · $15M TRIANGLE STRATEGY 2022 · $5.8M Xenonauts 2 2026 · $5.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Field of Glory II: Medieval older $29.99 424 86% 13k $381k (exactly $381,473) Byzantine Games
Death Crown older $12.99 516 89% 15k $201k (exactly $201,085) 5WORD Team
TINY METAL older $24.99 265 69% 8.0k $199k (exactly $198,670) AREA 35, Inc.
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Apes Warfare $14.99 90 95% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,473) GigaQuests, STOIC Ent.
RED DAWN · EA $12.99 84 91% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) Dynamic Duo Games
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Superstar Strategy $19.99 23 95% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Talberon Games
Horn of the Warlord $14.99 30 96% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) MagicKrol
SOG: Vietnam $12.99 33 93% 990 $13k (exactly $12,860) PigeonMakesGames, Games By Loki

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.