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Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Visual Novel?
Grid-Based Movement + Visual Novel
Only 6 developers shipped a Grid-Based Movement Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Midnight Sin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.3k against a market of $480. 19 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) |
| Top 25% | $8.2k (exactly $8,247) |
| Top 5% | $232k (exactly $232,084) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 25 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Grid-Based Movement
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Grid-Based Movement, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $4.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 4,308 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 19 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Grid-Based Movement with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
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Comparable games
Persona 5 Tactica 2023 · $2.7M 
Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk 2018 · $2.0M 
Zanki Zero: Last Beginning 2019 · $1.2M 
Midnight Sin 2026 · $232k 
Dungeon Travelers: To Heart 2 in Another World 2024 · $110k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Tactica | older | $59.99 | 1,526 74% | 46k | $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) | ATLUS |
| | Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk | older | $49.99 | 1,311 79% | 39k | $2.0M (exactly $1,966,107) | Nippon Ichi Software, Inc. |
| | Zanki Zero: Last Beginning | older | $59.99 | 650 77% | 20k | $1.2M (exactly $1,169,805) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | Midnight Sin | $19.99 | 387 82% | 12k | $232k (exactly $232,084) | Faerin Games | |
| | Dungeon Travelers: To Heart 2 in Another World | older | $19.99 | 184 82% | 5.5k | $110k (exactly $110,345) | AQUAPLUS |
 | Reverie Knights Tactics | older | $19.99 | 93 56% | 2.8k | $56k (exactly $55,772) | 40 Giants Entertainment |
 | The Sealed Ampoule | older | $19.99 | 56 80% | 1.7k | $34k (exactly $33,583) | CAVYHOUSE |
 | Slime Girl Smoothies | older | $14.99 | 39 76% | 1.2k | $18k (exactly $17,538) | Shady Corner Games |
 | Unyielding | older | $9.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $12,887) | MERCERNARY MAGE GAMES |
 | Onmyoji in the Otherworld: Sayaka's Story | older | $19.99 | 19 73% | 570 | $11k (exactly $11,394) | Debonosu Works |
 | CrossinG KnighTMarE - A Hymn to the Defiled Holy Maidens | $24.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $8.2k (exactly $8,247) | Ki-SofTWarE | |
 | Blockboy and The Wizard | $2.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) | Thorbear Games | |
 | Concrete Spaces | $4.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $898 (exactly $898) | Samuli Pietikäinen | |
 | Party Management | $3.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $479 (exactly $479) | Tap Water Games | |
 | Carrotour | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | lì tŕ, Eastern, Arian |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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