Do I ship it?

Games › Grid-Based Movement › Grid-Based Movement + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Grid-Based Movement + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 20 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×53 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.5M, ×11727 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $34k → $23k → $16k → $4.3k → $89k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $4.3k (exactly $4,302)
Median $25k (exactly $25,183)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,366)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 42
Announced 39
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Grid-Based Movement, Roguelike Deckbuilder; all of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 24,912 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.4k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.4k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors 2026 · $5.6M Cobalt Core 2023 · $2.4M Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M For The Warp 2022 · $195k Pawnbarian 2021 · $135k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Pawnbarian older $9.99 450 91% 14k $135k (exactly $134,865) j4nw
Master of Piece · EA $14.99 197 86% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) I M GAME, I M fine
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
Obsidian Prince older $14.99 103 77% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Unleash The Giraffe
Merge Maestro $3.99 384 93% 12k $46k (exactly $45,965) Stingless
Toads of the Bayou $9.99 137 72% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) La Grange
Touhou Rinrinki ~ Crafts of the Lucky Beast · EA $9.99 117 92% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) Starcrow Dev
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.