Do I ship it?

GamesGrid-Based MovementGrid-Based Movement + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Grid-Based Movement game?

Grid-Based Movement + Post-apocalyptic

Only 13 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Machinefall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×8.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $53k, ×85 the market median. Revenue is up 410% on the market; 51 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 410% on the market, 51 announced, ×8.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $3.6k → $20k → $4.6k → $2.4k
Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,187)
Top 5% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 49
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 410% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Grid-Based Movement
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 436 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Zanki Zero: Last Beginning older $59.99 650 77% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,805) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Subterrain: Mines of Titan older $19.99 657 75% 20k $394k (exactly $394,003) Pixellore Inc
Potato Flowers in Full Bloom older $17.99 654 95% 20k $353k (exactly $352,964) Pon Pon Games
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
Aeon of Sands - The Trail older $16.79 111 85% 3.3k $56k (exactly $55,911) Two Bits Kid
Inferno - Beyond the 7th Circle older $16.99 108 74% 3.2k $55k (exactly $55,048) 68k Studios
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Meteorfall: Rustbowl Rumble $14.99 93 91% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Slothwerks
Puzzle Depot $19.99 61 100% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Laughing Manatee Games
Temporal Titans · EA $9.99 44 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Lost Tower Games
Vinecard $9.99 42 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) SiriusStudio
Remnants of the Rift $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Bromio
Overencumbered In Another World $4.99 31 100% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Hawaiian Shirt Games
the travelers $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Gabriel Games LLC
Rapture Recovery Squad $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Reggie Dev
Fur and Void $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DFS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.