Do I ship it?

Games › Grid-Based Movement › Grid-Based Movement + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Grid-Based Movement game?

Grid-Based Movement + Mystery

Of 31 developers who shipped a Mystery Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×489 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 79 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 79 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $478 → $2.6k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $232k (exactly $232,084)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 81
Announced 79
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Grid-Based Movement; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Exploration, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 5,478 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M Midnight Sin 2026 · $232k How to Say Goodbye 2022 · $56k House of Rules 2021 · $39k Dawn of the Ashen Queen 2024 · $36k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Midnight Sin $19.99 387 82% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Faerin Games
How to Say Goodbye older $12.99 144 90% 4.3k $56k (exactly $56,117) Florian Veltman, Baptiste Portefaix, AR… (Florian Veltman, Baptiste Portefaix, ARTE France)
House of Rules older $7.99 163 90% 4.9k $39k (exactly $39,071) Chii the Cat
Dawn of the Ashen Queen $19.99 60 81% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Shattered Moon Games
The Sealed Ampoule older $19.99 56 80% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) CAVYHOUSE
HYNPYTOL older $14.99 64 98% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) base0
Homgard $14.99 61 88% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Manapunk Studio
Undeadly older $14.99 45 66% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Irreflex Studios
Hazard Pay $16.99 24 100% 720 $12k (exactly $12,233) Smitner Studio
Heroic Aegisio: Origins $7.99 27 77% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Vview Games
SusDoku: Clues & Suspects $4.99 37 35% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) MyNeuronal
Neverwood · EA $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) BellaInTheGame
Ruadine $4.99 25 100% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Glass Candle Games
Mirage: Ignis Fatuus $16.99 7 85% 210 $3.6k (exactly $3,568) Illam

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.