Do I ship it?

Games › Grid-Based Movement › Grid-Based Movement + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Match 3?

Grid-Based Movement + Match 3

Of 22 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 21 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $597 → $2.9k → $179 → $299 → $1.5k → $718 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 5% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 67
Announced 21
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Grid-Based Movement, Match 3; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Arcade, Action
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mythmatch 2026 · $74k Slime Girl Smoothies 2022 · $18k Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion 2025 · $15k Orbox C 2016 · $11k Writer's Block 2026 · $10k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mythmatch $19.99 124 98% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) Team Artichoke
Slime Girl Smoothies older $14.99 39 76% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Shady Corner Games
Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion $14.99 33 84% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Starstruck Games
Orbox C older $4.99 76 93% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) wins_84, gamebalance
Writer's Block $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) SinksAdventure
Threes! older $5.99 56 96% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,063) Asher Vollmer, Greg Wohlwend, BigGiantC… (Asher Vollmer, Greg Wohlwend, BigGiantCircles)
Heroes of Hellas Origins: Part Two older $6.99 30 100% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Jaibo Games
Kombine older $0.99 140 77% 4.2k $4.2k (exactly $4,158) Robert Alvarez
Soul Link older $5.99 16 93% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) Neutron Star Studio
Jewel Puzzle Click older $4.99 19 68% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Sabrina Aridi
Lines 98 $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Popoko VM Games
Hentai Merge Dice $1.99 25 80% 750 $1.5k (exactly $1,492) theNeko
AD BLOCKER: An Action Puzzle Game $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) The AD BLOCKER Team
Hexara $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Omnivorian
Bring The Rift $3.99 6 100% 180 $718 (exactly $718) YukiShiroDev
Mineshaft · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Z Sculpt Entertainment
Frog Box $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Defaultt Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.