Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Racing game?

Racing + Dystopian

Of 24 developers who shipped a Dystopian Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2978 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.7k → $1.2k → $5.5k → $449 → $2.0k (still earning) → $67k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,540)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 51
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Driving
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Third Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 20,051 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
XF Extreme Formula $11.99 366 90% 11k $132k (exactly $131,650) Feperd Games
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
Gearshifters older $24.99 85 80% 2.6k $64k (exactly $63,724) Red Phantom Games
CyberTaxi older $9.99 178 64% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Projects from Basement
CyberTaxi: Lunatic Nights · EA $13.99 68 55% 2.0k $29k (exactly $28,540) Hed Media Games
SWORDCAR · EA older $4.99 92 96% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) SpaceMicroscope Studios
Cyber Clutch: Hot Import Nights $19.99 21 61% 630 $13k (exactly $12,594) Gunpowder Games, Focuspoint Studios
Synthwave Driver · EA $2.99 107 86% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Runebox Studios
Neon Apex: Beyond the Limit $24.99 9 66% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) Repixel8
Lose Ctrl $12.99 14 92% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Play From Your Heart Ug (haftungsbeschr… (Play From Your Heart Ug (haftungsbeschränkt))

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.