Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Racing game?

Racing + Crafting

Of 23 developers who shipped a Crafting Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×463 the market median. Revenue is up 2955% on the market; 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2955% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $7.5k → $20k → $4.9k → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,348)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $71,952)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,506)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 68
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2955% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automobile Sim, Building
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 21,903 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 older $19.99 48,366 91% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,005,090) Red Dot Games
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game · EA older $29.99 16,815 93% 504k $15M (exactly $15,128,456) Camshaft Software Ltd
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
RAGE older $9.99 12,230 76% 367k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,331) id Software
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $19.99 1,580 68% 47k $948k (exactly $947,526) Play2Chill S.A.
Tracks - The Train Set Game older $19.99 1,212 93% 36k $727k (exactly $726,836) Whoop Group
Homebrew - Patent Unknown · EA older $14.99 828 71% 25k $372k (exactly $372,352) Copybugpaste
Revhead older $19.99 597 80% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) Creative Pudding Hungary Llc.
Underground Garage $14.99 646 63% 19k $291k (exactly $290,506) BeardedBrothers.games
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio
Long Drive North: Co-Op RV Simulator · EA $14.99 254 41% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Mindflair Games LTD
Sailaway III $15.99 158 68% 4.7k $76k (exactly $75,793) Orbcreation BV
Dino Ramen Express · EA $14.99 160 72% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,952) ANTIGames
Bar After Bar $6.99 331 87% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) OneMan Tim
Nautikin Adventures $29.99 23 86% 690 $21k (exactly $20,693) Revmatek
Mini Racer Car Shop Simulator $12.99 51 62% 1.5k $20k (exactly $19,875) Bewolba Studios
XFlight: FPV Drone Simulator $24.99 24 79% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Lingsrealm Technology

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.