Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Racing game?

Racing + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 29 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3427 the market median. Revenue is up 485% on the market; 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 485% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $5.8k → $3.8k → $1.2k → $449 → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,752)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 86
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 485% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Choose Your Own Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Automobile Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 23,980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Wrench · EA older $29.99 1,898 84% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,707,631) Missing Digit
Apex Point · EA older $18.99 1,832 86% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,690) Apex Studio
UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator older $19.99 1,556 78% 47k $933k (exactly $933,133) IndieMax
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
Last Holiday · EA older $29.99 387 40% 12k $348k (exactly $348,184) Boomer Games s.r.o.
OverDrift Festival older $9.99 1,103 79% 33k $331k (exactly $330,569) OverDrift Crew
Tokyo School Life older $14.99 619 92% 19k $278k (exactly $278,364) M2 Co.,LTD
MudRunner VR $19.99 128 46% 3.8k $77k (exactly $76,762) Saber Interactive Inc.
Time Heals $10.99 78 74% 2.3k $26k (exactly $25,717) Owl`s
Drift On Destiny Line · EA $14.00 51 82% 1.5k $21k (exactly $21,420) Attractive Studios
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Lust for Speed · EA $6.99 62 85% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,001) KG/AM
WorldDrive: Real Open-World Driving Simulator · EA $19.99 17 35% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) AJ Simulation & Engineering
Don't Crash $4.99 68 98% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) Override Studio
Tap Derby: Horse Racing $4.99 36 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Frost Warrior Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.