Do I ship it?

GamesGrid-Based MovementGrid-Based Movement + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Grid-Based Movement + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 9 developers shipped a Grid-Based Movement Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 文字遊戯(日本語版), made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 27 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grid-Based Movement + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Grid-Based Movement + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,500)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $77,678)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 32
Announced 27
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Grid-Based Movement, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $77k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grid-Based Movement with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair22 devs · median $3.0k · 30 announced
  2. + EconomyFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  3. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  4. + MiningFair12 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair17 devs · median $809 · 17 announced
  6. + BuildingFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  7. + HackingFair14 devs · median $719 · 11 announced
  8. + SokobanFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  9. + ProgrammingFair23 devs · median $599 · 24 announced
  10. + DogsFair14 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  11. + PlatformerFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  12. + Puzzle PlatformerFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced

All 126 pairs on the Grid-Based Movement page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Warlock of Firetop Mountain older $19.99 352 76% 11k $211k (exactly $211,094) Tin Man Games
文字遊戯(日本語版) $34.99 74 90% 2.2k $78k (exactly $77,678) Team9, ESQUADRA,inc.
Aeon of Sands - The Trail older $16.79 111 85% 3.3k $56k (exactly $55,911) Two Bits Kid
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
RPG Stories · EA older $29.99 36 77% 1.1k $32k (exactly $32,389) Brave Alice Games
Unyielding older $9.99 43 79% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) MERCERNARY MAGE GAMES
Farmcoz older $1.99 76 73% 2.3k $4.5k (exactly $4,537) Wigtor
Borstal older $2.99 25 56% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) The Secret Pie
My Little Colony older $7.99 8 12% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Andrew Sepulveda
The Legend of You $10.00 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,500) One Car Games
Kadin the Soul Eater $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Kedaku
Intermundia: Dungeons, Polygons & Magic · EA $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Trinity Team, Excaliber
Void Carrier $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Strive Continually
ShapeCycle $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Alejandro Valenzuela
Unbeatable Maze $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Logical Fun Games
Robin Hood: Sherwood Valley $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Solohack3r Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.