Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Racing game?

Racing + Card Battler

Only 6 developers shipped a Card Battler Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Canyon of Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $210 against a market of $630. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 9 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Racing + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,372)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 37
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Card Battler
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 7 games average 81% positive over 838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Death Roads: Tournament older $14.99 729 80% 22k $328k (exactly $327,831) The Knights of Unity
Canyon of Outlaws $39.99 92 89% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Javlier P
Cycling Champion · EA $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) RaulM
Emoji Shooter $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) SixpenceTech
The last throne $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) SLW Game Studio
人球の逆娘/Reverse Woman of Human Ball older $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) 東京なおみ/Tokyo Naomi
Ostensible $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Zhang Huiqin
Friend Slop $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bloomey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.