Do I ship it?

Games › Beat 'em up › Beat 'em up + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Beat 'em up?

Beat 'em up + Historical

Only 13 developers shipped a Historical Beat 'em up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Utawarerumono: ZAN, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×162 the market median. Revenue is up 2420% on the market; 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2420% on the market, 21 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Beat 'em up + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $55k → $1.5k → $479 → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Beat 'em up + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 5% $102k (exactly $101,974)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 56
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2420% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Beat 'em up
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Beat 'em up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $76k · 13 announced
  2. + RhythmFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  3. + CollectathonFair25 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair36 devs · median $539 · 41 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair11 devs · median $537 · 8 announced
  6. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $416 · 19 announced
  7. + NinjaLong shot29 devs · median $359 · 30 announced
  8. + Combat RacingLong shot15 devs · median $89 · 15 announced
  9. + Character Action GamePoor odds12 devs · median $58k · 37 announced
  10. + LootPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 29 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds74 devs · median $11k · 125 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds45 devs · median $11k · 71 announced

All 126 pairs on the Beat 'em up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition 2014 · $18M DYNASTY WARRIORS 9 2018 · $8.9M WARRIORS OROCHI 4 2018 · $8.0M Like a Dragon: Ishin! 2023 · $5.9M SAMURAI WARRIORS 5 2021 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
DYNASTY WARRIORS 9 older $44.99 6,587 34% 198k $8.9M (exactly $8,890,474) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
WARRIORS OROCHI 4 older $59.99 4,424 85% 133k $8.0M (exactly $7,961,873) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Like a Dragon: Ishin! older $39.99 4,891 80% 147k $5.9M (exactly $5,867,733) RGG Studio
SAMURAI WARRIORS 5 older $59.99 1,313 81% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,363,006) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun older $19.99 3,829 66% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) ZUIJIANGYUE Game
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8 Empires older $49.99 1,456 66% 44k $2.2M (exactly $2,183,563) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Legend of Tianding older $19.99 3,272 94% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) Creative Games Computer Graphics Corpor… (Creative Games Computer Graphics Corporation, Neon Doctrine)
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4-II older $49.99 1,259 73% 38k $1.9M (exactly $1,888,122) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Tales Of Glory older $10.99 1,042 80% 31k $344k (exactly $343,547) BlackTale Games
Utawarerumono: ZAN $39.99 85 77% 2.6k $102k (exactly $101,974) AQUAPLUS
River City Saga: Three Kingdoms Next $29.99 37 62% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Arc System Works
Banner of Conquest $4.99 89 65% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Haojoy Game
River City Saga: Journey to the West $19.99 20 65% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Arc System Works, UnitePlus
Earnest Evans Collection $49.99 7 42% 210 $10k (exactly $10,498) Mighty Rabbit Studios, Headless Chicken… (Mighty Rabbit Studios, Headless Chicken Games)
Bloodmatch $3.99 19 84% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) DOSMan Games
Shadow of the Orient $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Spacelab Games
水浒群侠传 $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) 曾经惨遭锁区
The Lost Samurai $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) CDIS Lab.
Project: KNOSSOS $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Ancient Pixel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.