Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Racing game?

Racing + Base Building

Only 11 developers shipped a Base Building Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, GT Manager, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×282 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $31k → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $176,929)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 418 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $600, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
Marble World older $19.99 1,268 89% 38k $760k (exactly $760,420) Vector Interactive
CAR TUNE: Project · EA older $18.99 585 84% 18k $333k (exactly $333,274) Vertices Software
GT Manager $24.99 236 71% 7.1k $177k (exactly $176,929) THE TINY DIGITAL FACTORY, IMV STUDIO
Drive 4 Survival · EA older $19.99 228 58% 6.8k $137k (exactly $136,732) M3M Games
Open Wheel Manager 2 $9.99 104 72% 3.1k $31k (exactly $31,169) Paprikash Games
sunny-place older $6.99 91 97% 2.7k $19k (exactly $19,083) tjern
Horse Farm Simulator · EA $9.99 45 60% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Glow Egg Games
Season 31 $4.99 21 100% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Main Sequence Star, Cal Chevreul, Lorra… (Main Sequence Star, Cal Chevreul, Lorrain Castel)
Corgi Race $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Kumkwat Entertainment
DrivApp $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DrivApp Team
Duty Free Shop Simulator · EA $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) CLOWN MAGIC
SurrounDead Poly Construction $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) LivingEveryday
SurrounDead Poly ‌Japan Sakura · EA $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) LivingEveryday
Codename Medusa · EA $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Serramonaca Capital Ventures

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.