Do I ship it?

Games › Racing › Racing + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Racing game?

Racing + Aliens

Only 12 developers shipped an Alien Racing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starfield Battlegrounds, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $0 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $1.2k → $0 → $0 → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 51
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 5 games average 89% positive over 38 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $2.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Andarilho 2020 · $180k Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers 2022 · $119k Switchcars 2021 · $44k Desert Child 2018 · $28k Dynamic Very, Very, Hard game!! 2016 · $13k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Andarilho older $4.99 1,204 66% 36k $180k (exactly $180,239) SC Jogos
Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers older $19.99 199 91% 6.0k $119k (exactly $119,340) Loomiarts, Fehorama Filmes
Switchcars older $8.99 164 90% 4.9k $44k (exactly $44,231) Altfuture
Desert Child older $11.99 79 74% 2.4k $28k (exactly $28,416) Oscar Brittain
Dynamic Very, Very, Hard game!! older $4.99 84 45% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) White Dog Games
Space Route older $24.99 11 90% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Space R Studio, Gamesforgames
Rush Rush Rally Reloaded older $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Senile Team
Police Scanner Radio - Real Live Audio - Happening Now! · EA older $19.99 6 66% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) hxr0
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔
City Multi Fun $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Net Get Games
Xenogen $7.49 4 100% 120 $899 (exactly $899) Sylph
Yaxi Taxi $2.99 4 100% 120 $359 (exactly $359) SUNSCOPE
Car May Fly · EA $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) carmayflystudio
UFOs On Stream $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Evan Matwijejko
Astro Defender $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) PandaRick
Atomic Cyclecar Racing 2 $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Studio Prime LLC
C64 & AMIGA Classix Remakes Sixpack 4 $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) magnussoft
DarkSpase · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Devon James

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.