Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Racing game?

Racing + Adventure

Of 278 developers who shipped an Adventure Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 355 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 141 developers shipped in the last year and 355 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 355 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 278
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $479 → $300 → $1.2k → $478 → $359 → $449 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 278
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 5% $497k (exactly $496,505)
Developers, 2 yr 278
Released games 1,190
Announced 355
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing, Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Driving
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 386,878 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 208 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 355 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Tower Unite $19.99 16,237 89% 487k $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) PixelTail Games
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.