Do I ship it?

Games2D Platformer2D Platformer + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling 2D Platformer?

2D Platformer + Gambling

Only 14 developers shipped a Gambling 2D Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Black Cat Bundle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 8 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Platformer + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for 2D Platformer + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $30 (exactly $30)
Top 25% $330 (exactly $330)
Top 5% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 25
Announced 8
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $1.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
2D Platformer, Gambling
Price point
$1.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 88% positive over 25 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $30, 1 in 4 over $330, 1 in 20 over $1.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  2. + VampiresFair47 devs · median $1.9k · 50 announced
  3. + MechsFair33 devs · median $1.8k · 44 announced
  4. + PinballFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 9 announced
  5. + WesternFair10 devs · median $1.3k · 13 announced
  6. + CRPGFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorFair178 devs · median $1.0k · 185 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  9. + MiningFair38 devs · median $748 · 45 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  11. + Party-Based RPGFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced

All 226 pairs on the 2D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Cat Bundle $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) ThatLeftHandMan
正宗台灣十六張麻將 older $0.99 42 92% 1.3k $1.2k (exactly $1,247) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Casa De Diamantes $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) SoulPixel Studio
Technically Frogs Can Fly $3.99 5 80% 150 $598 (exactly $598) FLAME130
ロジック麻雀 創龍 $10.99 1 0% 30 $330 (exactly $330) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)
Changdong's Bikini Adventure older $2.00 3 100% 90 $180 (exactly $180) CHANGDONGSOFTWARE
Chiky Poky older $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Nudiventra
Plinko : Ball Falling 3D-2D older $0.99 6 50% 180 $178 (exactly $178) ALI A.M
The Cornerman $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) APLCN Studios
The Hero's Journey through Time · EA older $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Wuppertaler93
Binary Game $0.99 3 66% 90 $89 (exactly $89) Wave Inc
24 Grab Points $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Meta Entropy Culture
超能力麻将 · EA $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DINGWOKER
信任崩塌(Trust collapse) $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) b站@把竹节虫当折耳根吃了
slackball $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Frontier Line Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.