Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsSokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sokoban?

Sokoban

Of 316 developers who shipped a Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 305 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $550, ×4.6 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 305 games are announced against 170 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 305 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 316
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.5k → $1.4k → $599 → $898 → $359 → $598 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 316
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $551 (exactly $551)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,512)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $24,284)
Developers, 2 yr 316
Released games 1,006
Announced 305
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Sokoban
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 98% positive over 2,850 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $550, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $24k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 171 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 305 games are announced against 170 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sokoban

51 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Score Attack + Sokoban Dead $0 15 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baba Is You older $14.99 21,011 97% 630k $9.4M (exactly $9,448,647) Hempuli Oy
Catherine Classic older $19.99 8,858 88% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,312,143) ATLUS
Patrick's Parabox older $19.99 4,985 99% 150k $3.0M (exactly $2,989,504) Patrick Traynor
Stephen's Sausage Roll older $29.99 1,588 96% 48k $1.4M (exactly $1,428,724) increpare games
Void Stranger older $11.99 3,307 91% 99k $1.2M (exactly $1,189,528) System Erasure
A Monster's Expedition older $19.99 1,594 94% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Draknek & Friends
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Paper Trail older $19.99 726 94% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Newfangled Games
Paquerette Down the Bunburrows older $11.99 1,115 96% 33k $401k (exactly $401,066) Bunstack
Wilmot Works It Out $14.99 767 97% 23k $345k (exactly $344,920) Hollow Ponds, Richard Hogg, Talha Kaya
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
Poke ALL Toads $11.99 447 100% 13k $161k (exactly $160,786) SpaceMatra
Gentoo Rescue $19.99 237 99% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Jagriff
Treasure 'n Trio $14.99 242 100% 7.3k $109k (exactly $108,827) TNT
Theta and Paralldox on Worldlines $9.99 276 97% 8.3k $83k (exactly $82,717) XXela
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
He Who Watches $19.99 109 96% 3.3k $65k (exactly $65,367) Bobby Vanden
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Loophole $9.99 154 99% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Levi Pinkert

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.