Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Local Co-Op game?

Local Co-Op + Supernatural

Only 11 developers shipped a Supernatural Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Scarlet Idol, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×1305 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Co-Op + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.4k → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Co-Op + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,247)
Top 5% $620k (exactly $619,864)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 30
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Co-Op
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 66% positive over 2,695 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $630, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair11 devs · median $14k · 12 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair16 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  4. + TriviaFair12 devs · median $7.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Action RPGFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  6. + ModernFair11 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Dark FantasyFair40 devs · median $2.7k · 47 announced
  8. + Board GameFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  9. + Dungeon CrawlerFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  10. + MedievalFair46 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair22 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  12. + Point & ClickFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 9 announced

All 151 pairs on the Local Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Infernax 2022 · $1.3M Scarlet Idol 2026 · $620k I'm on Observation Duty 6 2023 · $235k Morkredd 2020 · $95k Nullpoint Protocol 2026 · $28k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infernax older $19.99 2,128 93% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,276,162) Berzerk Studio
Scarlet Idol $7.99 2,586 66% 78k $620k (exactly $619,864) 山雨工作室
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Morkredd older $19.99 158 71% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Hyper Games
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
A Quiver of Crows older $14.99 26 76% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Sheado.net
Elsewhere Electric $24.99 11 27% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Games by Stitch
Mad Devils: Damned-finitive Edition older $14.99 11 54% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Itzy Interactive Inc.
Where is Billy? $6.99 23 100% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) Triple Boris Inc., Dodo Tako
Halloween is Crazy as Hell older $9.99 16 100% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Ciro Fernandes (Cube Legal)
The Newton Mystery $5.99 8 100% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) In The Snow Studios
Boyfiend & Ghoulfriend $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Dragon Spire Games
Witchtower: Spell Siege $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) One Billion Bees
Beware The Ghost $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Goblinagerie
The Supernatural Power Troll $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Jack Le Hamster
Ethereal Storm · EA $8.40 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) App.nz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.