Do I ship it?

GamesLocal Co-OpLocal Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Local Co-Op game?

Local Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic

Of 34 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×9.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×938 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 48 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 48 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.7k → $3.6k → $38k → $1.1k → $9.0k → $3.1k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,245)
Top 5% $589k (exactly $588,905)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 99
Announced 48
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Local Co-Op; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Co-op
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 6,232 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair11 devs · median $14k · 12 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair16 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  4. + TriviaFair12 devs · median $7.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Action RPGFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  6. + ModernFair11 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Dark FantasyFair40 devs · median $2.7k · 47 announced
  8. + Board GameFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  9. + Dungeon CrawlerFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  10. + MedievalFair46 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair22 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  12. + Point & ClickFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 9 announced

All 151 pairs on the Local Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
How to Survive older $14.99 13,990 82% 420k $6.3M (exactly $6,291,303) Eko Software
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
Contagion older $9.99 10,042 75% 301k $3.0M (exactly $3,009,587) Monochrome, Inc
Death Trash · EA older $19.99 3,460 91% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,074,962) Crafting Legends
Fight'N Rage older $19.99 2,557 92% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,433) sebagamesdev
Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise Of The Dragons older $24.99 1,270 86% 38k $952k (exactly $952,119) Secret Base
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
Blazing Chrome older $16.99 1,326 89% 40k $676k (exactly $675,862) JoyMasher
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
Coridden $19.99 426 89% 13k $255k (exactly $255,472) Aftnareld
Apocalypse Express $9.99 262 81% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,521) Llamaware Studios
Survivor Mercs $9.99 147 70% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Wolpertinger Games
Flying Tank $14.99 97 86% 2.9k $44k (exactly $43,621) Hexage
Containment Initiative 2 $14.99 89 85% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Gwyn Games LLC
Tasty Planet: Final Bite $12.99 100 90% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Dingo Games
The Left Behind $10.99 116 23% 3.5k $38k (exactly $38,245) Extrude
Vengeance Hunters $19.99 63 84% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Nalua Studio SLU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.